Underdog Win Betting: When It Makes Sense
We are used to the idea that betting in betwinner sign up on the favorite is safe and correct. But this is not always the case. After all, there is not a single team that has won every match. By betting on underdogs, you can secure profits in the long run.
And today we will talk about how it works and when is the best time to bet on a lagging team, as well as what strategy to choose for this.
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How to spot an underdog
The word underdog generally came to us from dog fights, where the losing dog remains at the end of the fight under the winner (a strong opponent presses the weak one to the ground). Now this is what they call underdogs in any sport. It is quite easy to identify them by such factors:
- the team or player has a reputation for being weak;
- in the upcoming duel, he is regarded as a loser;
- Bookmaker odds are always higher.
If the coefficient for the victory of the clear leader does not always reach even 1.5, then the outsider can have a coefficient of 4.0, and sometimes even more (7.0–10.0). This is because the bookmaker does not consider the victory of such a team or an individual athlete to be probable, plus most bettors will bet on the favorite, which also affects the quote.
Why it is profitable to bet on lagging teams
For a bettor who is willing to take risks and wait, an underdog victory is a real tidbit. Indeed, thanks to a high coefficient, you can win a big jackpot or make a good profit at a distance.
Even if bets on the underdog only go through 30% of the time, it will be profitable for the bettor. Thus, in order to be in the black financially, betting on an outsider, it is enough that only 1 bet out of 4 plays.
At the same time, by betting on the favorite, the bettor gets low odds. Therefore, for a good profit, he needs to guess 3 out of 4 outcomes (or even more, since sometimes the quotes are very low and the profit for a good bet is insignificant). Or it is necessary to bet large amounts so that the income is tangible.
Pre-match analysis to determine the probability of winning an outsider
But you need to be careful when making such bets. After all, not all matches are suitable for such a risk. It is important to understand when an outsider has a real chance to win. And for this, a pre-match analysis is carried out.
Here are some factors that can increase the chance of an underdog winning:
- The favorite before this received a series of devastating victories. In this case, within the framework of the tournament, he becomes less motivated to defeat a weak team. At the same time, the odds per outsider are growing.
- There are replacements in the leading team due to injuries or disqualifications of strong players (this is not the strongest factor influencing, so consider it in combination with others).
- The weaker team plays a home match. Most athletes show the best results in their field.
- The favorite participates in the meeting after additional loads. For example, football players go to national teams. Or in tennis, a player goes through many fights within a tournament. Therefore, in the early stages of less significant events, they can lose, and this is a great time to bet on the underdog.
- Motivation within the framework of the ongoing tournament. When a team, say in basketball, has a big point lead over others or has already achieved a guaranteed result, it will not give all the best at 100%, this is especially noticeable in away matches.
- Uncomfortable rivals. There are favorite teams (or athletes in singles) who regularly fail in meetings with a certain underdog opponent. This is easy to see from the meeting statistics.
- Smaller factors – weather conditions, tennis court surface, player injuries – still reduce the chances of leaders to win.
Understanding this, it is easy to catch the right moment for a bet. Therefore, bet only after analysis, and do not just chase high odds.
A few tips for such bets
There are several good options that make betting on the underdog safer. For example:
- If an outsider has a chance to lose by a small margin, bet on him with a plus handicap;
- Bet on an outsider’s goal in live mode, waiting for the odds to start growing;
- Bet on the underdog in those matches where he plays at home against a strong opponent.
In any case, betting on a weaker team is always riskier. Therefore, be prepared to take risks and tune in to a more interesting pastime.
How to insure yourself when betting on an underdog?
It will be right if you spend a small part of your bankroll on such investments, spending the rest on more reliable outcomes. Thus, you will have a chance to make good money, and you will not remain in the red.
What is the best sport to bet on the underdog?
This is football because there are many outcomes, including form, goal scored, and other options. As well as tennis, especially women’s. There are very often comebacks from a weaker athlete.
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